The Ganges Treaty Expires This December. What Bangladesh Wants Next

The 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty expires in December 2026. Bangladesh and India are negotiating renewal — and Dhaka is pushing for basin-wide governance across all 54 shared rivers.

The Ganges at Farakka. The 1996 water-sharing treaty governing this river expires in December 2026. Photo: শরদিন্দু ভট্টাচার্য্য, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

By the UISC BD Editorial Desk · United Information Service Center · Published 9 September 2026 · 11-minute read

On 12 December 1996, India and Bangladesh signed a treaty governing how they would share the waters of the Ganges during the dry season. It was written to run for thirty years, with review every five.

Those thirty years end this December.

What replaces the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty — or whether anything does — is the single most consequential question in Bangladesh's neighbourhood diplomacy right now. It affects irrigation across a large share of the country's farmland, the salinity of its southwest coast, the health of the Sundarbans mangrove forest, and the drinking water of millions.

How the Dispute Began: Farakka

The Ganges enters Bangladesh from India, where it is called the Ganga. In 1975, India commissioned the Farakka Barrage, a structure roughly 18 kilometres upstream of the Bangladesh border, designed to divert water into the Hooghly river to flush silt and keep the port of Kolkata navigable.

Every litre diverted at Farakka is a litre that does not continue downstream. For Bangladesh — the lower riparian, entirely dependent on what arrives across the border — the barrage transformed a shared river into a negotiated allocation.

An initial Ganges Waters Agreement in 1977 regulated distribution for five years. Arrangements lapsed and resumed intermittently until the 1996 treaty established a durable framework and, importantly, formally recognised Bangladesh's rights as a lower-level riparian state.

What the 1996 Treaty Actually Says

The treaty governs the dry season, from 1 January to 31 May — the months when flow is lowest and the stakes are highest.

Its central mechanism operates on ten-day cycles. During the critical period from 11 March to 10 May, India and Bangladesh each receive a guaranteed 35,000 cusecs in alternating three ten-day periods. Across the wider dry season the allocation formula works out at approximately 42.5 percent to India and 37.5 percent to Bangladesh, with the remainder governed by flow conditions.

Delivery is measured at the Hardinge Bridge, the monitoring point inside Bangladesh.

The Grievance Bangladesh Brings to the Table

Bangladesh's core complaint is not that the treaty is unfair in principle but that delivery has fallen short in practice. Analysis of measurements between 1997 and 2016 found that on 94 of 300 recorded occasions, the volume arriving at Hardinge Bridge was lower than what was presumably released upstream at Farakka.

Whether that gap reflects measurement methodology, natural channel losses, or upstream abstraction is exactly the kind of technical dispute that a renewed treaty needs better machinery to resolve. It is also why Bangladeshi negotiators have pressed for stronger joint monitoring rather than simply higher headline numbers.

What Dhaka Is Asking For

Reporting by The Diplomat and analysis from the NUS Institute of South Asian Studies indicate that Bangladesh's negotiating position has broadened considerably from a simple volume argument. Three themes stand out.

Basin-wide governance. India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers. Negotiating them one at a time, decades apart, has produced exactly one comprehensive treaty in fifty years. Bangladesh favours moving toward a framework covering the basin as a system — an approach that would also open a path on the long-stalled Teesta question.

Climate-adjusted allocation. The 1996 formula was written using twentieth-century flow data. Himalayan glacial melt patterns, monsoon variability and upstream demand have all shifted since. A treaty renewed on 1996 assumptions would be governing a river that no longer behaves the way the drafters assumed.

Treaty duration and review. The length of any new agreement, and how frequently it is genuinely reviewed rather than nominally reviewed, is itself under negotiation.

Where the Talks Stand

Both governments have reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation through the Joint Rivers Commission, the bilateral body established to manage shared waters, and discussions entered a critical phase during 2026.

Real differences remain — on dry-season allocation for the January-to-May window, on how long a renewed treaty should run, and on whether to expand from a single-river treaty toward basin-wide governance.

What is worth noting, and what distinguishes this from a crisis narrative, is that both parties are negotiating. Water disputes between upper and lower riparian states elsewhere in the world have produced litigation, frozen relations and occasionally worse. India and Bangladesh have a functioning bilateral commission, a thirty-year treaty record to build on, and active talks running ahead of the deadline.

Why This Matters Beyond the Riverbank

Dry-season flow determines whether irrigation reaches fields across Bangladesh's western districts during the boro rice season — the harvest that underpins the country's position as the world's third-largest rice producer.

It determines how far seawater pushes inland along the southwest coast. Reduced freshwater flow accelerates salinity intrusion, which degrades farmland, contaminates drinking water and stresses the Sundarbans ecosystem — the same salinity pressure identified as a principal threat in Bangladesh's climate adaptation planning.

And it shapes the navigability of inland waterways that remain a major freight route in a country built on a delta.

The Case for Optimism

It would be easy to write this story as a countdown to failure. The more accurate reading is that a treaty which functioned for three decades is reaching its scheduled expiry, and the two governments are negotiating its successor through an established institutional channel.

Bangladesh also comes to these talks in a materially stronger diplomatic position than at any point in the treaty's history — holding the UN General Assembly presidency, having recently chaired UNESCO's General Conference, and with expanding partnerships across multiple regions. Negotiating leverage is not only technical; standing matters.

The treaty's own history supports cautious optimism. The 1996 agreement was itself reached after two decades of intermittent arrangements and failed talks. Difficult water negotiations between these two countries have concluded successfully before.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ganga Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh?

Signed on 12 December 1996, it governs how India and Bangladesh share Ganges water during the dry season, measured at the Farakka Barrage and delivered to Bangladesh at the Hardinge Bridge. It runs for thirty years.

What happens to the Ganges Water Treaty in 2026?

It expires at the end of December 2026. India and Bangladesh are in active negotiations over renewal through the Joint Rivers Commission.

Should the Ganges Water Treaty be renewed?

Both governments have expressed commitment to continued cooperation. The debate is less about whether to renew than about what a renewed agreement should contain — allocation volumes, duration, monitoring, and whether to widen it toward basin-wide governance.

Does Bangladesh get water from India?

Yes. Bangladesh is the lower riparian on the Ganges and 53 other shared rivers, meaning water flows into Bangladesh from India. The treaty governs how much reaches Bangladesh during the dry season.

How much water does Bangladesh receive under the treaty?

During the critical 11 March to 10 May window, India and Bangladesh each receive a guaranteed 35,000 cusecs in alternating ten-day periods. Across the dry season the formula works out at roughly 42.5 percent to India and 37.5 percent to Bangladesh.

How many rivers do India and Bangladesh share?

54 transboundary rivers. Only the Ganges is covered by a comprehensive long-term treaty, which is why Bangladesh favours a basin-wide approach.

Sources

"Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996" (full text), ADB Law and Policy Reform Program — lpr.adb.org
"The Ganges Treaty Renewal: Negotiating Water Sharing under Climate Stress," The Water Diplomat, April 2026 — waterdiplomat.org
"Water for Peace: What Bangladesh Wants From the Ganga Water Treaty," The Diplomat — thediplomat.com
"The Ganges Waters Treaty: What will Happen after 2026?," NUS Institute of South Asian Studies — isas.nus.edu.sg
"The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty: Genesis & Significance," Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies — ipcs.org

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The Ganges Treaty Expires This December. What Comes Next?